Market Share of 2.5%, How Big is the Meme Coin Market’s Potential?

There is no doubt that when the market enters a phase where “major tokens dominate,” the only remaining performance spotlight falls on meme coin projects, with increasing market attention shifting to the meme coin sector.

Data shows that Google search volume for “Bitcoin” reached its lowest point in a year during the week of October 12, with the index falling to 33 over the weekend. In contrast, searches for “memecoins” reached 77 during the same period. While this is still below the historical peak of 100 set in late October 2023, meme coins have undeniably become the most popular topic, overshadowing Bitcoin in recent times.

This raises the question: is there an overinflated bubble in the meme coin market? How high is the ceiling for meme coin projects? With such a frenzy of hype, has the meme coin market already peaked? In this article, Coindarwin provides a brief analysis of the meme coin market from a data-driven perspective to explore its future potential.

Meme Coin Market Performance: 2.5% of Total Market Cap, but 10% of Top 100

According to data from Coingecko, the current meme coin market is valued at approximately $58 billion, accounting for only 2.4639% of the total crypto market cap of $2.354 trillion—less than 2.5%.

Previously, Ansem, a prominent crypto KOL and trader often referred to as the “Meme Coin King” and the “Top Influencer of Meme Coin Shilling,” mentioned in a post: “The overall amount of capital flowing into meme coins is insufficient ($50 billion in a $2.2 trillion market, about 2.5%), but they are gaining increasing attention.”

He added, “The best trades over the next four months will be those meme coins that have: 1) long accumulation periods, 2) a passionate community on X (formerly Twitter), and 3) relevance to the average person.”

Notably, some in the comments pointed out that MOG fits Ansem’s three criteria. As the “MOG shill master,” Ansem enthusiastically agreed, saying, “So true.”

However, in stark contrast to their market cap proportion, meme coin projects are becoming increasingly visible among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.

Coingecko data shows that meme coin projects now occupy 10% of the top 100, including leading projects like DOGE, SHIB, PEPE, WIF, BONK, FLOKI, POPCAT, BRETT, NEIRO, and MOG. Of these, DOGE ranks 9th with a market cap of $16.57 billion, placing it among the top 10.

If the crypto industry were viewed as a country, meme coins would represent just 2.5% of its GDP. However, within the top 100 companies in this “economy,” 10% are from the meme coin sector.

By comparison, in 2023, the Fortune 500 companies in the U.S. had a combined revenue of $18.1 trillion, representing 71% of the country’s GDP. In 2024, the revenue of the top 500 companies grew to $18.8 trillion, accounting for about two-thirds of the U.S. GDP.

Of course, comparing the $2 trillion crypto market to the U.S. economy, with its tens of trillions in GDP, is somewhat absurd. However, it’s clear that despite the relatively fixed range of the crypto market cap (between $2 and $3 trillion), meme coins are on a strong upward trajectory this cycle.

Key to Meme Coin Success: Solana Ecosystem + Pump.fun

Market data shows that in 2024, meme coins have outperformed all other crypto sectors, and there are no signs of slowing down.

According to Step Finance, since September 12, 497,153 new token projects have been created on the Solana network.

Solana Floor previously reported that on October 8 alone, nearly 20,000 new tokens were launched on Solana, most of which were meme coins. On October 12, they also noted that meme coin market cap on Solana surpassed $10 billion, with 24-hour trading volume reaching approximately $2.3 billion.

At its core, the meme coin boom is driven by three key factors:

1. Approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, concentrating mainstream capital.
2. Crypto VC projects have “no results but issue tokens anyway,” draining market liquidity.
3. Ongoing Solana ecosystem development, with Pump.fun’s “one-click token issuance” model.

With mainstream capital flowing into ETF investments, newcomers to the crypto industry are focusing more on meme coins, which carry viral appeal, wealth-creation potential, and crowd-driven momentum. Meanwhile, many crypto VC projects, after enduring the bear market, have little to show but are rushing to issue tokens during the bull market to make a quick profit.

This drains already limited market liquidity, making retail investors even more reluctant to invest in these “value tokens” that spiral downward, resulting in a vicious cycle. Meanwhile, Solana’s ongoing ecosystem development, coupled with Pump.fun’s “one-click token issuance” model, has significantly lowered the barriers to issuing tokens, realizing the vision of “everyone can issue tokens.”

Meme coins have also become a new growth point for various blockchain ecosystems, such as TRON, Base, and SUI, attracting significant market attention, liquidity, and ecosystem focus.

Preconditions for a Meme Coin Supercycle

In this cycle, if the crypto market gradually enters a major bull phase, the meme coin market cap should align with its presence in the top 100, reaching around 8-10% of the total market.

The peak crypto market cap was over $3 trillion in November 2021. Under highly optimistic conditions, the meme coin sector still has the potential for 4-5x growth.

Industry OG and crypto KOL Murad previously mentioned in a speech, “The meme coin supercycle is not a prophecy for the future; it’s happening now.” He further noted that of the top 300 cryptocurrencies, only 43 have outperformed Bitcoin, with meme coins being the primary sector.

In a recent tweet, Murad added, “The number of meme coin holders in the Ethereum and Solana ecosystems is growing rapidly. We are still in the early stages of the meme coin supercycle.”

Meme Coin Projects with Rapid Growth in Holder Numbers Over the Past 30 Days

The well-known crypto KOL and seasoned Meme coin player, Neso, recently shared his views on the future development of the Meme coin sector. He outlined several key criteria for what he considers a Meme coin supercycle:

• The total market cap of the Meme coin sector reaches or exceeds $300 billion (this would be approximately 5-8% of the total market cap of cryptocurrencies at the peak of this bull cycle).
• At least one Meme coin achieves a market cap of over $100 billion.
• 5-10 Meme coins reach a market cap of over $10 billion.
• At least one Meme coin receives widespread coverage by global mainstream media, gains celebrity endorsements, and triggers a FOMO (fear of missing out) wave among the public.

It’s worth noting that the market cap of DOGE, often considered the “original” Meme coin, peaked on May 8, 2021. At that time, propelled by the “tech genius” Elon Musk and a fanatical fan base, its market cap surged past $100 billion, with DOGE reaching a price of $0.7316 per coin, bringing the total market cap to $107 billion.

This one Meme coin alone accounted for approximately 4.65% of the entire crypto market cap at that time. While the crypto industry was at a different stage of development back then and had not yet reached its market cap peak, this serves as a highly valuable reference for understanding the potential “ceiling” for Meme coins today. (For context, Bitcoin was priced around $57,361 at that time, with a total crypto market cap of about $2.3 trillion.)

We have reasons to believe that the conditions for a full-fledged Meme coin supercycle are not yet fully mature. However, in today’s increasingly tense global political and economic environment, cryptocurrencies, with their inherent hedge asset characteristics, are bound to attract increasing attention.

Looking ahead, fueled by the atmosphere of mass excitement, it is entirely possible that we will see 1-3 Meme coin projects with a market cap of $100 billion, and the overall market cap of the Meme coin sector could potentially break through $300-500 billion.

As CryptoQuant CEO and founder Ki Young Ju pointed out, “Given the continued high interest in Meme-related digital assets, search volumes for memecoins could return to previous all-time highs by the end of October 2024.”

Meme Coin Supercycle to Arrive in 2025

According to a report by crypto asset management firm Matrixport, global cryptocurrency adoption is nearing a significant milestone, with 7.51% of the global population using crypto. This number is expected to surpass 8% by 2025, marking a shift from niche to mainstream.

Furthermore, CMC Research’s Q3 report mentioned that “Bitcoin’s bull cycle is accelerating, with this cycle’s bull market arriving 100 days earlier than typical four-year cycles.” The bull market is expected to peak between mid-May and mid-June 2025, with indicators suggesting the market is entering a supercycle phase, driven by institutional adoption and ETF approvals.

As Murad also suggested, 2025 will be the year of “parabolic meme coin growth.”

In conclusion, 2025’s bull market holds great potential, and meme coins are set to shine in this no-longer-niche industry.