The U.S. Election: Will Trump’s Campaign Ignite Bitcoin’s Breakthrough?

Will Trump's Campaign Ignite Bitcoin's Breakthrough?

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches its climax, the question remains: who will take the White House? Will it be the historic first female president, Kamala Harris, or the comeback king, Donald Trump? The stakes are high, and the outcome remains uncertain.

Interestingly, cryptocurrency has emerged as a new battleground in this election. Trump’s statements have frequently influenced Bitcoin’s price fluctuations, while Elon Musk, a prominent supporter of Dogecoin, has also thrown his weight behind Trump’s campaign. It seems that Bitcoin and the virtual asset market are tightly intertwined with this political-business alliance. With Bitcoin’s price oscillating around $70,000, the critical question is whether Trump’s campaign could serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s breakthrough.

Pre-Election Betting on Trump

Market participants have already begun to place bets on a potential Trump victory, with this expectation manifesting across various sectors, including the stock market, bonds, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies. In the past month, Bitcoin’s movements have closely mirrored Trump’s electoral prospects, making the outcomes in seven key battleground states pivotal for market direction.

From Wall Street to Silicon Valley, traders are strategizing their investments based on these expectations. However, elections are notoriously unpredictable, and any “surprise” event could lead to significant market volatility. Investors must prepare for a range of scenarios.

Potential Impacts if Trump Wins

If Trump emerges victorious, several effects on the traditional financial market could be anticipated:

In the digital currency sphere, a Trump victory could yield the following impacts:

Despite the current likelihood of a Trump win, the possibility of “special” events occurring during the election must not be overlooked. According to the latest data from PolyMarket, Trump’s support stands at 56.2%, down from a peak of 65% last week, indicating a tight race. If Harris secures victory, existing market expectations will be shattered, leading to significant reversals.

Potential Impacts if Harris Wins

Should Harris win, the traditional financial market may experience:

In the cryptocurrency realm, a Harris administration might lead to:

The Future of the Crypto Market Under Trump

If Trump successfully takes office, the 2025 crypto market could see:

As the U.S. election unfolds, the rhetoric from both candidates is closely monitored by the markets. Regardless of the outcome, investors must stay vigilant, closely tracking policy developments and market expectations while effectively managing risks to avoid being swayed by short-term market emotions.

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