Since Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election on November 5th, Bitcoin’s price has surged to new all-time highs. As of today, Bitcoin is trading between $88,000 and $89,000, with an intraday high of $90,036.17 on election night. This remarkable price surge has raised the question: how long will this momentum last, and when can we expect Bitcoin to reach $100,000?
The Bullish Outlook: Optimism and Predictions
Trump’s election victory, expectations of sovereign nations following the U.S.’s lead in establishing Bitcoin strategic reserves, and a favorable macroeconomic environment with looser interest rates have all contributed to Bitcoin’s current rally. But the critical question remains: how soon will Bitcoin break the $100,000 mark?
Bernstein analysts, in a recent report, told clients, “Don’t fight the trend — welcome to the crypto bull market. Buy everything you can.” Both Bernstein and Standard Chartered forecast that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of next year. But the immediate target for most investors is whether Bitcoin will hit $100,000 first.
Polymarket users have already placed over $3 million in wagers on whether Bitcoin will hit $100,000 by the end of 2024, with the probability currently standing at 59%.
Bitcoin’s $100,000 Milestone: A Matter of Timing
Michael Cahill, CEO of Douro Labs, told The Block, “Bitcoin reaching $100,000 is not a matter of ‘if,’ but ‘when.’ In my view, this could happen as early as the first quarter of 2025.” Cahill attributed the current momentum not to mere FOMO (fear of missing out) but to a structural shift in how investors view Bitcoin.
“The market has finally acknowledged Bitcoin as a legitimate asset and an inflation hedge,” Cahill said. “Today, we see a fundamental shift in how investors perceive Bitcoin. The six-figure price floor is beginning to form, and this rally may solidify Bitcoin’s position as a cornerstone of the global financial system.”
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, echoed this sentiment, saying, “Bitcoin has been waiting for the next trigger point since it broke the $74,000 level. It could easily reach $100,000 by the end of this year.” Hougan emphasized that new Bitcoin buyers are fueling the surge, but another significant factor is that long-term holders are no longer willing to sell at current prices.
“Long-term holders are not willing to sell, and short sellers seem unwilling to stand in the way of this speeding train,” he added.
Potential for FOMO
Chandra Duggirala, CEO of Tides.Network, believes Bitcoin could easily hit $100,000 before Thanksgiving. However, he also warns that there are risks in the short term. “We haven’t seen wealth managers show strong FOMO yet, and retail investors are just starting to pay attention. So, this trend is still in its infancy. We believe the real FOMO will come once Bitcoin breaks $100,000.”
Zaheer Ebtikar, founder and CIO of Split Capital, shared a similar view, pointing to the historical trend of price surges when Bitcoin hits new all-time highs. “Once Bitcoin breaks through the $100,000 level, it will likely trigger a self-fulfilling prophecy,” he said. “But more importantly, smart money is moving into the market now, ahead of the inevitable wave of capital.”
Ebtikar noted that institutional capital is still waiting to enter, and the real FOMO could be delayed until early December or even January 2025.
The Smart Money Perspective
Alexander Blume, CEO of Two Prime, is confident that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 before the end of the year. “BTC’s implied volatility is 55,” Blume said. “Although that’s a bit high, I expect the price to reach higher levels before the market peaks. The increasing demand for options with strike prices above $100,000 suggests there is still more upside to come.”
CF Benchmarks data shows that traders are purchasing call options for Bitcoin with strike prices of $100,000, signaling an increasing demand for upside exposure. The implied volatility for these far-out-of-the-money options has spiked, a sign that the market is positioning for a breakout.
Jake Ostrovskis, an OTC trader at Wintermute, observed that Bitcoin’s upward momentum has been strong, with increasing open interest in Bitcoin options that target the $100,000 mark by December 27th. “The sentiment remains bullish,” Ostrovskis said, “and there’s still room for Bitcoin to move higher before the market tops out.”
The Role of Regulatory Developments
Geoffrey Kendrick, an analyst at Standard Chartered, believes that Bitcoin could easily reach $90,000 by November 29th, and $100,000 by December 27th. He predicts that Bitcoin might reach $125,000 by the end of the year. Kendrick pointed to December 10th as a critical date when Microsoft’s board will vote on whether to invest in Bitcoin, potentially fueling further price appreciation.
Nascent’s Matt Klein noted that Bitcoin’s price could hit $100,000 before Trump’s inauguration on January 20th, especially if the Lummis bill passes in Congress. The bill, proposed earlier this year by Senator Cynthia Lummis, calls for the U.S. Treasury to buy 1 million bitcoins over the next five years to combat the devaluation of the dollar.
Global Factors and the Trump Effect
With anti-crypto lawmakers like Senator Sherrod Brown losing in the election, the U.S. Congress is set to become the most crypto-friendly in history. Combined with Trump’s economic policies, which may lead to further dollar devaluation, some believe that Bitcoin’s price could skyrocket.
Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, suggested that the supply of Bitcoin, which is increasingly scarce due to its fixed supply, will drive demand not just from American investors but from global markets, including Europe, Japan, and China. “As fiat currencies lose value, Bitcoin will become the global safe haven asset,” Hayes said. “This is why Bitcoin could reach $1 million — because the price is determined by marginal buyers. Buy and hold.”
Conclusion: The Road to $100,000
Bitcoin’s path to $100,000 seems all but certain for many analysts, but the timing remains a subject of debate. While some experts predict a breakthrough before the end of 2024, others see 2025 as the most likely target. Regardless of when it happens, Bitcoin’s future looks increasingly bright as more institutional money enters the market, regulatory clarity improves, and its role as a legitimate asset class solidifies.
For investors, the current surge is not just about riding the wave of FOMO, but about recognizing Bitcoin as a key player in the global financial ecosystem. The coming months will likely bring more volatility, but the long-term trend is undeniably bullish as Bitcoin continues to reshape the financial landscape.
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