Harris Surpasses Trump with a 70% Election Win Probability: What Future Policies Might She Adopt Toward Cryptocurrency?
According to data from prediction market Polymarket, Kamala Harris (hereinafter referred to as Harris) now has a 77% chance of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election, while Trump’s probability has dropped to 21%.
A month ago, following an assassination attempt, Trump’s chances surged to 70%, significantly outpacing Biden and leading to a sharp increase in Bitcoin prices, which hit a high of $70,000.
The Biden administration has consistently maintained a strict regulatory stance on cryptocurrency. As the current Vice President and Biden’s successor, will Harris continue with these stringent regulatory policies in the future? Coindarwin will analyze the market information.
The Silent Harris
Public information and White House financial disclosures show that U.S. Vice President Harris and her husband have significant investments, but neither holds any digital assets. Additionally, she has never publicly expressed support or opposition to cryptocurrencies, tokenization, blockchain, or NFTs.
Last Thursday, Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna hosted a meeting aimed at mending relations with the cryptocurrency industry. Approximately twenty people attended, including government officials like the Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, the Deputy Director of the National Economic Council, the Deputy Chief of Staff of the White House, and Harris’s senior advisor Kristine Lucius.
Representatives from the cryptocurrency sector included billionaire Mark Cuban, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, and executives from companies like Ripple, Coinbase, Kraken, and Uniswap.
However, Harris did not attend the meeting. According to FOX reporter Eleanor, the communication during the meeting was not smooth, and the atmosphere was tense, with disputes arising between the parties.
Eleanor attributed this to Harris’s lack of a clear stance on the matter, making it difficult for her team to make commitments while trying to repair relationships with the crypto community. The team’s approach was described as “willing to listen but not making commitments.”
Recently, Harris chose Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. Walz has also never explicitly stated his position on cryptocurrency policy. The only publicly known event related to cryptocurrency involving him was receiving a $4,000 political donation from former FTX engineering director Nishad Singh in October 2022.
The Team at Work
Although Harris has not directly expressed her attitude toward the cryptocurrency industry, her team’s actions have revealed some clues.
According to a recent Bloomberg report, Harris has hired three external advisors to help her refine her latest economic agenda. These include Mike Pyle, her first economic advisor since becoming Vice President, and two former Biden economic aides, Brian Deese and Bharat Ramamurti. Insiders say that while the overall proposal is relatively lenient, it includes a provision to tax wealthy cryptocurrency holders.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Research, commented on the involvement of these three external advisors. He noted that Brian Deese and Bharat Ramamurti were key figures in the Biden administration’s opposition to cryptocurrency, analyzing their roles in this opposition. For details, readers can refer to Alex’s original article (click to jump).
Alex further pointed out that Mike Pyle has long worked for Senator Elizabeth Warren, the Senate’s most prominent opponent of cryptocurrency. Mike was responsible for Elizabeth’s economic policies during her presidential campaign while working in her Senate office.
Market Opinions
Bernstein: Harris’s Election Is Bearish for the Crypto Market
In a recent research report, brokerage firm Bernstein stated that if Trump wins the U.S. election in November, it will be favorable for the cryptocurrency market, while Harris’s victory would be detrimental.
The report noted that Bitcoin weakened after Polymarket odds and polls shifted in favor of Harris, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range until the election outcome becomes clear. Trump has been outspoken about his crypto policies, engaging with companies in the sector, Bitcoin miners, and the broader community.
He has even promised favorable support for Bitcoin and crypto innovation in his policies, including the possibility of establishing a national Bitcoin reserve.
Gemini Co-Founder: Supporting Harris Is Opposing the Crypto Industry
The U.S. Federal Reserve has taken enforcement actions against banks that support cryptocurrency clients, requiring them to provide 30 days’ notice before establishing new banking relationships with crypto companies.
This move has raised doubts about the sincerity of Vice President Harris’s campaign team in mending relations with the cryptocurrency industry.
Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss and Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson have both stated that the current U.S. government holds a hostile attitude towards the crypto industry, warning voters that supporting Harris could be detrimental to the U.S. crypto sector.
Arthur Hayes: It Doesn’t Matter Who Wins, Bitcoin Will Ultimately Rise
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in an interview that it doesn’t matter whether Trump or Harris wins the next U.S. presidential election; it won’t significantly impact the cryptocurrency industry.
Although the crypto sector has donated significant funds to Trump, it’s not enough to surpass the influence of JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Citibank, and Goldman Sachs. Therefore, even if Trump wins, he may still face the same challenges as in his first term: while he might express pro-crypto sentiments and attempt some policies, if the entire government apparatus opposes them, nothing will be accomplished.
Regarding Bitcoin and monetary policy, Hayes mentioned that both a Trump administration and a Harris administration would print money, just in different ways. Hence, cryptocurrencies will rise, but the journey might be turbulent.
Paradigm Survey: Harris Needs to Attract Crypto Community Supporters
According to a recent survey by crypto investment firm Paradigm, U.S. Vice President Harris may need to attract more support from the crypto community to strengthen the Democratic Party’s chances of winning the November election.
The survey, conducted among 804 registered Democrats, found that 13% of respondents were undecided about whether to vote for Harris. Among undecided voters, 18% had invested in cryptocurrency, and 21% of crypto investors believed the Biden administration was “too hostile” toward the industry.
Overall, the survey indicated that due to the Biden administration’s unfriendly stance towards the cryptocurrency industry, a small portion of Democrats (1% to 2%) might lean towards the Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Republican Senator Vivek Ramaswamy: Harris Will Support the Crypto Industry
U.S. Senator Vivek Ramaswamy predicted that Harris would embrace Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency industry. Ramaswamy stated, “I think this is a good thing for the country… This shouldn’t be a partisan issue.”