Can Notcoin Breaking the Enclosure of the TON New Ecosystem?
With Up to 900 Million Monthly Active Users, TON
The Open Network (TON), originally known as the Telegram Open Network, was created by the Telegram team in 2018. After facing SEC accusations of conducting an unregistered securities offering during the ICO era, the Telegram team paid fines to settle and abandoned the project, which was then continued to be developed and operated by the community-based TON Foundation. Although formally separated from Telegram, the actual connection between the two remains direct. TON has always been the only public chain officially supported by Telegram and continues to be deeply integrated with Telegram. TON will continue to benefit from Telegram’s huge user base and traffic, while Telegram aims to build a decentralized digital ecosystem with freedom and privacy through supporting TON.
Telegram has attracted a large number of global users with its advocacy for freedom of speech and privacy protection, with over 1.3 billion registered users and nearly 900 million monthly active users (MAU). Additionally, Telegram has a significant advantage in acquiring Web3 users due to its relaxed speech atmosphere and regulatory environment. Almost all Web 3.0/Crypto projects operate communities on Telegram, with Telegram’s user base concentrated in Asia, Europe, South America, and the Middle East. The user base consists largely of retail investors with a strong demand for peer-to-peer payments, making them an ideal group for Web3 conversion.
Recently, besides Telegram founder Durov indicating consideration of an IPO, Durov publicly declared the official sales channel for TON tokens on his personal channel. The Telegram advertising platform will officially open to all advertisers in nearly a hundred new countries. To ensure fast and secure advertising payments and withdrawals, the TON blockchain will be specifically used. Content creators will be able to cash out their Toncoin or reinvest it to promote and upgrade their channels. These initiatives will accelerate the development of the TON network and truly expand the use cases and scenarios of blockchain.
Viral Spread of Notcoin
Notcoin is a free and easy-to-use Telegram game where players earn coins by tapping on their phone screens. Since its launch on January 1, 2024, it has gained immense popularity, with over 30 million participants and a daily active user count exceeding 5 million, making it the fifth-ranked channel in terms of data on Telegram.
According to statements from the TON Foundation and interviews, Notcoin is developed by Sasha Plotvinov and her team at Open Builders, an organization dedicated to funding projects on the TON blockchain. Open Builders is associated with Tonstarter, which successfully raised $1.5 million in seed funding last year specifically to support projects based on the TON blockchain. Additionally, TON’s official Twitter account has retweeted Notcoin-related tweets multiple times, and Notcoin’s official Twitter account currently has 1.5 million followers.
In early March, Notcoin introduced a feature allowing elite players to convert a large amount of in-game currency into NFT vouchers, which can be traded before the token’s official release. Players can choose to exchange 10 million or 100 million in-game coins for discount coupon NFTs. These NFTs are currently available for early trading and pricing on the TON ecosystem NFT trading platform Getgems and can be exchanged for tokens once officially issued on the chain.
According to Notcoin’s game representative, token generation events and subsequent airdrops to players will take place at the end of March or early April.
Comparison of Relevant Data
As of the 27th, there are approximately 500,000 Notcoin NFTs in circulation, with a current value of 10M = 9 TON (calculated at 5U), a market capitalization of approximately $22.5 million, a total trading volume of 2 million TON, and a trading volume of approximately $10 million.
Starting from March 15, trading volume for Notcoin NFTs became active, with a recent high of 25,000 trades on the 25th. The average transaction price was 10M = 6.7 TON, with a transaction volume of $837,500. On the 26th, there were 21,000 trades, with an average transaction price of 10M = 9.9 TON and a transaction volume of $1,039,500. The highest price occurred on March 13 at 10M = 66 TON, while the lowest price was on March 20 at 10M = 3.7 TON.
Bybit announced on Monday that Notcoin ($NOT), a meme coin based on Telegram, would be listed on its pre-market trading platform starting at 10:00 am UTC on Monday. According to data from the 27th, Bybit’s pre-market trading offer for Notcoin is 10M = $60–90, with a considerable premium compared to NFT market trading.
Comparing with the current top meme coin in the TON ecosystem, FISH, which has a current market value of $39 million and a 24-hour trading volume of $2.55 million, Notcoin’s market value and trading volume during the NFT trading stage are about half that of FISH.
Conclusion
Currently, the surge in meme coins has become an important way to break the enclosure of public chain ecosystems. Although the TON ecosystem is still in its early stages, its potential for development backed by Telegram’s huge user base is unquestionable. Compared to the development of TVL in the ecosystem projects, memes can more easily drive short-term popularity.
Overall, the Notcoin project has received official support from TON and has a huge user base, making it a potential choice for breaking the enclosure as a meme coin. However, the risk lies in the current lack of clarity in the token economy. With over $20 million worth of NFTs circulating before secondary listing, there is significant selling pressure upon listing. However, based on fundamentals, the project is believed to have potential in the medium term.