With his likely return to the Oval Office in January 2025, Donald Trump will once again wield influence over tech industry regulation. However, the landscape has drastically changed since his first term in 2017.
The once-cozy relationship between Big Tech and the U.S. government has dissipated. Both Trump and his successor, Joe Biden, have shown deep skepticism towards tech CEOs, albeit for different reasons. This has coincided with a historic wave of antitrust actions, with enforcement agencies targeting major players for the first time in decades.
Most tech CEOs, reflecting on the volatility of the last eight years, seem to believe that both Trump and Biden should “stay out of politics as much as possible,” even as they intensify lobbying efforts behind the scenes. Some have taken steps to foster favorable relations with Trump, potentially hoping it could work to their advantage.
The following are ten key areas of tech policy we’ll likely track closely during Trump’s return to the presidency, along with potential actions he may take:
1. Artificial Intelligence
Trump’s second term would likely reduce regulatory constraints on the AI industry. He has pledged to repeal Biden’s executive order on AI, which called for safeguards against discriminatory AI applications in areas like housing and criminal justice. Instead, Trump may prioritize innovation over these bias-related concerns.
AI policy could be a space where Elon Musk, CEO of xAI and a vocal advocate for AI safety, seeks influence. Musk, who has criticized companies like OpenAI despite his role as co-founder, has previously supported measures addressing existential AI risks. Trump’s stance on thorny copyright issues surrounding generative AI and data sourcing remains uncertain but could be swayed by tech CEOs favoring limited oversight.
2. Antitrust Policy
Trump’s antitrust enforcement may hinge on personal grievances. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jennifer Rie suggests that decisions may reflect Trump’s opinions on specific companies or industries. His vice-presidential pick, J.D. Vance, has praised FTC Chair Lina Khan’s aggressive approach to tech giants, which could mean continued pressure on Big Tech and greater support for startups and venture capital firms like Andreessen Horowitz. However, the intensity of this enforcement will depend on Trump’s chosen appointees and evolving priorities.
Trump’s administration may continue legal battles with companies like Meta, Google, Apple, and Amazon, though potential settlements could be more lenient than those sought by current agencies.
3. TikTok
Trump’s stance on TikTok has shifted significantly. Initially pushing for a ban, he’s now opposed to one, reportedly due to lobbying from Republican donor Jeff Yass, a ByteDance investor. Nonetheless, a recent law mandates ByteDance divest its stake in TikTok by early 2025, which limits Trump’s flexibility. Should he support the divestiture, he could approve ByteDance’s proposed restructuring plan with congressional backing.
4. Trade and Tariffs
Trade policy may echo Trump’s first term, potentially with new tariffs on foreign-manufactured goods. While Biden has imposed export controls on advanced semiconductors, Trump’s vision could include tariffs of up to 100% on specific imports, impacting companies like Apple and Tesla that rely on overseas production. Musk, as a close Trump ally, may attempt to mitigate some of these policies due to Tesla’s vested interests in international markets.
5. Net Neutrality and Telecom Policy
With a Republican-led FCC, broadband providers could face fewer restrictions, including relaxed rules on content moderation. Trump’s FCC may also enable greater media consolidation and enforce stricter controls on tech companies perceived as monopolistic. Brendan Carr, a Republican FCC commissioner, has previously advocated for broadening contributions to the Universal Service Fund, suggesting Big Tech companies could be required to contribute.
6. Content Moderation
Long a point of contention for conservatives, Trump’s administration may pursue legislative reforms to Section 230, seeking to limit liability protections for platforms that moderate content. Republicans argue that these platforms censor conservative voices, particularly on topics like elections and health policy. The FCC could also be empowered to narrow the scope of these protections, further complicating content moderation practices across platforms.
7. Children’s Online Safety
Though Trump has not voiced specific opinions on the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA), its fate remains uncertain in Congress. Republican concerns about KOSA’s impact on free speech mean the act may face resistance, particularly with its provisions for limiting children’s exposure to potentially harmful content.
8. Electric Vehicles (EVs)
While Trump has criticized climate-focused EV policies, his alliance with Musk could influence policy decisions on EV incentives. Analysts suggest that Trump’s policies may pivot away from direct subsidies, potentially favoring consumer incentives instead, benefiting legacy automakers like GM, Ford, and Stellantis.
9. Semiconductors
The CHIPS and Science Act, aimed at bolstering U.S. semiconductor production, was a bipartisan effort under Biden. Trump has publicly criticized the act and may instruct the Department of Commerce to slow its implementation. Although he cannot unilaterally repeal the act, Trump’s influence could impact its effectiveness in revitalizing domestic semiconductor manufacturing.
10. Cryptocurrency
Trump’s alignment with the crypto sector is notable, with promises to turn the U.S. into a “Bitcoin superpower.” If elected, Trump may replace SEC Chair Gary Gensler, a figure often criticized by the crypto community for his stringent regulatory stance, with a more industry-friendly leader. This shift would likely result in a regulatory landscape favorable to crypto development and investment.
Conclusion
While Trump’s second term could foster a tech environment that prioritizes growth and deregulation, the industry’s future remains uncertain and may be characterized by unpredictability. Legislative support and judicial rulings will play pivotal roles in shaping the extent of Trump’s influence, adding a layer of complexity to the tech industry’s outlook.
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